Freight rates are falling. Your landed cost probably is not.

If you have renewed a freight contract this year you will have noticed rates coming down. The market is carrying a capacity surplus of more than ten percent on the main east-west trades, and fleet growth is running ahead of demand growth. That is a shipper's market, and forecasts through 2026 have pointed to contract rates falling somewhere in the range of ten to twenty-five percent.

What has not fallen is what happens to your container after it arrives.

The saving is real. So is the offset.

Handling, storage and demurrage charges at Indian ports have risen by roughly six to twelve percent since the middle of the year. For an importer moving regular volume, that increase lands on every single box — and unlike ocean freight, it is not something you negotiated at the start of the year.

The effect is that two importers on the same lane, paying the same ocean rate, can end up with materially different landed costs depending entirely on how many days their containers sit.

Where the days actually go

In our experience the delay is rarely at the vessel end. It is almost always paperwork that arrived late or did not agree with itself.

• Documents reaching the broker after the vessel has berthed, so filing starts late.
• A description or weight that differs between the invoice and the packing list, triggering a query at assessment.
• Classification unresolved, so the declaration cannot be finalised.
• Duty funds not arranged, so an otherwise cleared consignment waits on payment.

Each of those is avoidable and each of them costs money at a daily rate. We have written up the paperwork side in detail in our import documentation checklist, including the mismatches that cause most of the queries we see.

What to renegotiate this year

A soft rate market is the right moment to look at the things that are not the rate:

1. Free days. In a shipper-favourable market this is negotiable, and an extra two or three days of free time is often worth more than another fifty dollars off the box.
2. Detention terms separate from demurrage. They are two different clocks and they are frequently quoted as if they were one.
3. Destination charges in writing. Particularly on LCL, where several charges are levied per shipment rather than per cubic metre.
4. Advance filing as standard. Ask your broker to prepare the declaration before arrival rather than on arrival.

The lane rate is the number everyone compares. It is not the number that decides what you pay.

A note on where rates go next

Forecasters expect 2026 to be patchy rather than uniformly soft — different corridors stabilising at different times rather than one broad recovery. Intra-Asia and India–Europe were expected to steady earlier than others. Treat any single forecast with caution: the same capacity surplus that is pushing rates down can be absorbed quickly if carriers withdraw sailings, which they have done before.

Questions we are getting

Are ocean freight rates going down in 2026?

Broadly yes. The market is carrying a capacity surplus of over ten percent on the main east-west trades, with fleet growth outpacing demand growth, and forecasts have pointed to contract rate declines in the range of ten to twenty-five percent. The picture varies by corridor rather than moving uniformly.

Why has my landed cost not fallen as much as my freight rate?

Because port-side charges moved the other way. Handling, storage and demurrage at Indian ports rose by roughly six to twelve percent since mid-year, which offsets a good part of the line-haul saving, especially if your containers sit for several days.

What should I negotiate other than the rate?

Free days, detention terms stated separately from demurrage, destination charges provided in writing, and advance filing of the bill of entry as standard practice. In a soft rate market these are all more negotiable than usual.